“Nearly 5 million able-bodied Medicaid recipients ‘merely select to not work’ and ‘spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv.’”
Scott Jennings on “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip” on July 1
Republicans defended the GOP megabill’s Medicaid modifications as focusing on a gaggle of individuals they imagine shouldn’t qualify: individuals who can work however as a substitute select to remain house and chill.
A number of Republican politicians and pundits, together with CNN senior political commentator Scott Jennings, pegged that group’s dimension at about 5 million individuals.
“There are like nearly 5 million able-bodied individuals on Medicaid who merely select to not work,” Jennings stated July 1 on “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip.” “They spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv. And should you can’t get off grandma’s sofa and work, I don’t need to pay in your welfare.”
Facilities for Medicare & Medicaid Companies Administrator Mehmet Oz picked up on a few of these factors throughout a July 14 look on Fox Information. “When this system was created 60 years in the past, it by no means dawned on anybody that you’d take able-bodied people who may work and put them on Medicaid. Immediately the typical able-bodied particular person on Medicaid who doesn’t work, they watch 6.1 hours of tv or simply hang around,” Oz stated.
Medicaid is a federal-state medical insurance program that covers medical look after lower-income individuals.
Jennings cited two items of information: an estimate of what number of fewer individuals would have protection due to the work requirement and an evaluation of how nonworking Medicaid recipients spend their time. However he made assumptions that the information doesn’t help.
Jennings Misrepresents CBO Estimate
The 4.8 million determine stems from a June 24 Congressional Price range Workplace evaluation of a preliminary Home model of the huge tax and spending package deal. The workplace, Congress’ nonpartisan analysis arm, projected that provisions of the invoice would trigger 7.8 million fewer individuals to have well being protection by 2034. They would come with 4.8 million individuals beforehand eligible for Medicaid described as “able-bodied” adults 19 to 64 years outdated who haven’t any dependents and who “don’t meet the group engagement requirement” of doing “work-related actions” no less than 80 hours a month.
Aside from working, doing group service and attending faculty additionally fulfill the group engagement requirement.
Jennings paired that statistic with a separate evaluation of how nondisabled grownup Medicaid recipients with out dependent kids spend their time.
However the CBO estimate was a projection — it doesn’t symbolize the present variety of nondisabled Medicaid recipients, nor does it say 4.8 million individuals on this group “select to not work.” The determine represented what number of fewer individuals would have protection due to the invoice’s group engagement requirement.
“The problem with Jennings’ feedback — and so they’ve been echoed elsewhere by elected Republicans — is that CBO by no means stated that 4.8 million individuals had been out of compliance with the proposed work necessities; they stated that 4.8 million individuals would lose protection due to the work necessities,” stated Adrianna McIntyre, an assistant professor of well being coverage and politics on the Harvard T.H. Chan College of Public Well being.
Among the many Medicaid enlargement inhabitants, the legislation requires most adults with out dependent kids and oldsters of kids older than 13 to work or take part in different qualifying actions 80 hours each month. States might want to confirm that candidates met the work requirement for one to 3 months earlier than they utilized. States may also be required to confirm that present enrollees met the work requirement for no less than a month between eligibility determinations, which will probably be required no less than twice a yr.
Analysis into Medicaid work necessities imposed on the state degree has proven that folks discovered it tough to satisfy them and submit documentation, contributing to protection losses.
In Arkansas, which added a piece requirement to Medicaid in 2018, a research primarily based on almost 6,000 respondents discovered that about 95% of the goal inhabitants had been already working or certified for an exemption, however a 3rd of them didn’t hear concerning the work necessities. In consequence, almost 17,000 Medicaid recipients topic to work necessities misplaced protection.
KFF discovered that adults ages 50 to 64 are extra liable to shedding Medicaid protection due to the brand new work necessities. Greater than 1 in 10 in that age group stated they’d retired, and amongst them, 28% reported being disabled, stated KFF, a well being data nonprofit that features KFF Well being Information.
Benjamin Sommers, a well being care economics professor on the Harvard Chan faculty, stated most of the 4.8 million “able-bodied” individuals within the CBO estimate “will truly be engaged within the actions they’re alleged to be doing, and lose protection as a result of they aren’t in a position to navigate the reporting necessities with the state and lose protection from purple tape.”
When Recipients Don’t Work, It’s Hardly ever From Lack of Curiosity
There is no such thing as a common definition for “able-bodied”; incapacity could be assessed in several methods. However different research supply a lot smaller estimates than 4.8 million Medicaid recipients with out dependents who can work however select to not.
Thousands and thousands of working-age, nondisabled adults joined the Medicaid ranks in states that expanded eligibility beneath the Reasonably priced Care Act. There have been about 34 million working-age nondisabled Medicaid enrollees in 2024, in line with the CBO, 15 million of whom enrolled by the ACA.
A KFF evaluation discovered a smaller determine of 26 million Medicaid-covered adults, ages 19 to 64, who don’t obtain Supplemental Safety Earnings, Social Safety Incapacity Insurance coverage, or Medicare advantages.
Amongst this group, KFF estimated, 64% had been working both full time or half time. The explanations the remaining weren’t working included caregiving (12%); sickness or incapacity (10%); retirement, incapacity to search out work, or different motive (8%); and college attendance (7%).
Few individuals cited lack of curiosity in working as the rationale for his or her unemployment. An City Institute research discovered 2% of Medicaid enlargement enrollees with out dependents who neither labored nor attended faculty — or 300,000 individuals out of a projected 15 million topic to work necessities — cited an absence of curiosity in working as the rationale they had been unemployed.
This was in line with the Brookings Establishment’s June 5 evaluation that discovered that, of 4.3 million grownup enrollees who labored fewer than 80 hours a month and didn’t have any exercise limitations or sicknesses, about 300,000 reported that they “didn’t work as a result of they didn’t need to.”
Principally Girls, Principally With a Excessive College Diploma or Much less
When Republicans have described nondisabled grownup Medicaid recipients, they’ve usually portrayed them as males of their 30s “taking part in video video games” of their dad and mom’ basement or who “smoke weed all day.” Analysis paints a distinct image.
Jane Tavares and Marc Cohen, of the College of Massachusetts-Boston Gerontology Division, researched Medicaid recipients who should not disabled or working, haven’t any dependent kids beneath 18, and should not in class. They cited 2023 census information from the American Neighborhood Survey.
They discovered:
- The common age of this inhabitants is 41, and 26% are older than 50.
- Nearly 80% are feminine.
- Most, 80%, have a highschool training or much less.
- Their median particular person earnings is $0, and their median family earnings is $44,800.
- About 56% labored previously 5 years, and 23% labored within the prior yr. About 30% are trying or out there for work.
“They don’t seem to be wholesome younger adults simply hanging out,” the authors, together with well being legislation consultants Sara Rosenbaum and Alison Barkoff, wrote April 30.
“It’s clear primarily based on their prior work historical past and household dimension/earnings that they’re exceptionally poor and have doubtless left the workforce to look after grownup kids or older adults,” Tavares advised PolitiFact. “Even when these people may work, they might have only a few job alternatives and it will come at the price of the individuals they’re offering look after.”
AEI Research Not Definitively Linked to CBO Estimate
On the social platform X, Jennings posted the CBO letter and a Could 29 evaluation by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative assume tank, about “how nondisabled Medicaid recipients with out kids spend their time.” PolitiFact contacted CNN to succeed in Jennings however didn’t obtain a reply.
The creator of that research, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Kevin Corinth, analyzed survey information and located that Medicaid recipients who don’t report working spend on common 6.1 hours a day “on all socializing, stress-free and leisure actions (together with tv and video video games).”
Nevertheless it’s unsure whether or not the individuals within the survey inhabitants he analyzed overlap with the individuals included within the CBO evaluation, stated Jennifer Tolbert, deputy director of KFF’s Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured.
Corinth advised PolitiFact “it’s tough to say” how the inhabitants he analyzed differs from the CBO’s. Tavares, Cohen, Rosenbaum, and Barkoff stated Corinth’s dataset outlined incapacity narrowly, resulting in a “severe underestimation of incapacity” among the many inhabitants of Medicaid recipients he seemed into. It targeted on Medicaid recipients who obtain Supplemental Safety Earnings or have a well being situation that stops them from working. The researchers stated this method is just too slim as a result of the SSI program accounts for under these “most deeply impoverished adults with extreme disabilities.”
The group gave a hypothetical instance of a 54-year-old girl with a severe coronary heart situation who can work just a few hours per week. She is probably not thought-about disabled beneath the SSI program, however she could also be restricted within the work she will do and may have time to relaxation.
“Utilizing her ‘leisure time’ to justify a piece requirement grossly misrepresents her actuality,” the group wrote.
Corinth’s evaluation additionally reveals that nonworking Medicaid recipients spend much less time socializing, stress-free, or engaged in leisure actions than nonworking individuals who aren’t lined by Medicaid. Nonworking Medicaid recipients additionally spend extra time searching for work and doing home tasks and errands, it discovered.
Our Ruling
Jennings stated nearly 5 million nondisabled Medicaid recipients “merely select to not work” and “spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv.”
The 5 million determine stems from a CBO projection that 4.8 million individuals would go with out protection by 2034 because of not fulfilling the group engagement necessities. It isn’t descriptive of present enrollees and doesn’t specify that these individuals select to not work.
Jennings cited an American Enterprise Institute evaluation on how nondisabled Medicaid recipients with no dependents spend their time, however it’s unsure if the inhabitants in that evaluation overlaps with that within the CBO estimate.
Present snapshots of the inhabitants Jennings described produce a smaller quantity. A survey by the City Institute discovered that 2% of Medicaid enlargement enrollees with out dependents who had been neither working nor attending faculty — about 300,000 individuals — cited an absence of curiosity in working. Different analysis has discovered causes this group doesn’t work embody caregiving, sickness or incapacity, retirement, and incapacity to search out work.
Research of nonworking Medicaid recipients have discovered the bulk are ladies and have a highschool training or much less. Their common age is 41, and greater than half have a piece historical past previously 5 years.
We fee Jennings’ assertion False.
Our Sources
E-mail interview, Jane Tavares, College of Massachusetts-Boston adjunct teacher in gerontology, July 2, 2025
E-mail interview, Marc Cohen, College of Massachusetts-Boston professor of gerontology, July 2, 2025
E-mail interview, Sara Rosenbaum, George Washington College Milken Institute College of Public Well being professor emerita of well being legislation and coverage, July 2, 2025
E-mail interview, Alison Barkoff, George Washington College Milken Institute College of Public Well being affiliate professor of well being legislation and coverage, July 2, 2025
E-mail interview, Edwin Park, Georgetown College McCourt College of Public Coverage Middle for Youngsters and Households analysis professor, July 2, 2025
E-mail interview, Benjamin Sommers, Harvard T.H. Chan College of Public Well being professor of well being care economics, July 2, 2025
Cellphone interview, Jennifer Tolbert, deputy director of KFF’s Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured, July 2, 2025
E-mail interview, Adrianna McIntyre, Harvard T.H. Chan College of Public Well being assistant professor of well being coverage and politics, July 2, 2025
Cellphone interview, Michael Karpman, City Institute Well being Coverage Division principal analysis affiliate, July 3, 2025
E-mail change, Congressional Price range Workplace spokesperson, July 2, 2025
E-mail interview, Kevin Corinth, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow, July 3, 2025
X put up by Fast Response 47, June 30, 2025
Transcript of “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip,” July 1, 2025
Congressional Price range Workplace, “Re: Data Regarding Medicaid-Associated Provisions in Title IV of H.R. 1,” June 24, 2025
Benjamin D. Sommers, M.D., Ph.D., Anna L. Goldman, M.D., M.P.A., M.P.H., Robert J. Blendon, Sc.D., E. John Orav, Ph.D., and Arnold M. Epstein, M.D., “Medicaid Work Necessities — Outcomes From the First 12 months in Arkansas,” June 19, 2019
Congressional Price range Workplace, Baseline Projections, Medicaid, June 2024
KFF, “Understanding the Intersection of Medicaid and Work: An Replace,” Could 30, 2025
City Institute, “Many Working Individuals Would Be Shut Out of Medicaid Below Proposed Work Necessities,” June 11, 2025
Wisconsin Watch, “Have Thousands and thousands of Nondisabled, Working-Age Adults Been Added to Medicaid?” July 2, 2025
CBS Information, “Too Sick To Work, Some People Fear Trump’s Invoice Will Strip Their Well being Insurance coverage,” June 26, 2025
Brookings Establishment, “Any Approach You Have a look at It You Lose: Medicaid Work Necessities Will Both Fall In need of Anticipating Financial savings or Hurt Susceptible Beneficiaries,” June 5, 2025
X put up by Scott Jennings, July 2, 2025
American Enterprise Institute, “How Nondisabled Medicaid Recipients With out Youngsters Spend Their Time,” Could 29, 2025
Congressional Price range Workplace, “Estimated Budgetary Results of an Modification within the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 1, the One Massive Stunning Invoice Act, Relative to CBO’s January 2025 Baseline,” June 29, 2025
Geiger Gibson Program in Neighborhood Well being, George Washington College Milken Institute College of Public Well being, “The Basic Flaw in ‘How Staff Spend Their Time’,” June 4, 2025
X put up by Aaron Rupar, July 1, 2025
X put up by Congressman Brandon Gill, July 2, 2025
LeadingAge LTSS Middle @UMass Boston, “Profile of Medicaid Inhabitants Age 18-64, Working and Non-Working Medicaid Beneficiaries, and ‘In a position-Bodied’ Non-Working Medicaid Beneficiaries,” Could 2025
The Milbank Quarterly, “Who’s Affected by Medicaid Work Necessities? It’s Not Who You Suppose,” April 30, 2025
KFF, “Totally different Information Supply, however Similar Outcomes: Most Adults Topic to Medicaid Work Necessities Are Working or Face Obstacles to Work,” June 25, 2025
